THE SHORT ANSWER
Modelled heat pump job values in Sweden run SEK 113,900 to SEK 227,800 in 2026, midpoint SEK 170,850. That midpoint carries 20 to 30 percent gross margin, which is SEK 34,150 to SEK 51,250. Winning the customer takes 3 to 5 exclusive leads at SEK 1,300 to SEK 2,050 each, so acquisition costs SEK 3,950 to SEK 10,300 and absorbs 7.7 to 30.1 percent of the margin on a single project.
The average job value question looks like accounting trivia until you try to set a marketing budget without it. What follows is a modelled 2026 band for heat pump work in Sweden, plus the two calculations that turn a band into a decision: gross margin on the midpoint, and the cost of putting a signed customer in front of it.
Treat the width of the band as information rather than vagueness. The variables are whether the property needs new emitters, the heat load of the building, and air source against ground source, and on top of them sits the market itself: in Sweden, small populations plus high click prices make this one of the most expensive markets per lead in Europe, which is exactly why exclusivity matters more here.
The numbers, at a glance
Midpoint contract value: around SEK 170,850, inside a working band of SEK 113,900 to SEK 227,800 for heat pump work in Sweden
What is left after materials and labour: SEK 34,150 to SEK 51,250 of gross margin, being 20 to 30 percent of the midpoint contract
Lead spend per signed customer: SEK 3,950 to SEK 10,300, at 3 to 5 exclusive leads each costing SEK 1,300 to SEK 2,050
Margin consumed by acquisition: 7.7 to 30.1 percent of one job's gross margin, counting nothing from repeat or referral work
The heat pump band explained, from SEK 113,900 to SEK 227,800
Read the band as a description of one thing only: a complete installed project for a private homeowner in Sweden, excluding VAT. Commercial tenders, social housing frameworks and emergency call-outs all price differently and should never be averaged into it.
Three variables do most of the work, namely whether the property needs new emitters, the heat load of the building, and air source against ground source. Sweden is a small market of roughly 10.6 million people, and the depth of that pool sets how much price pressure sits under every quote written into it.
SEK 113,900. Accessible property, standard specification, no surprises during the survey.
SEK 170,850. The typical quote, with a specification upgrade or two added after the first visit.
SEK 227,800. Wider scope, awkward access, or the premium option chosen in every category.
Cold climate specification is the baseline, not an upsell
Design temperatures of minus 20 degrees and below across much of the country change what a competent installation looks like in every trade. Snow loads dictate roof structure and fixings, triple glazing is the normal specification rather than the premium one, frost depth governs anything that goes into the ground, and heating equipment is sized for capacity at low ambient rather than nominal output. The Swedish building envelope is also already insulated to a standard that would count as a deep retrofit further south. That raises the material cost of a like-for-like job and removes the easy wins: you cannot sell a Swedish household the efficiency story that works in Belgium, because they are starting from a much better baseline. What sells instead is durability, comfort in February and a specification that keeps working when it matters, and those are the lines that carry the contract value.
Why a proper heat loss calculation pays for itself
A room-by-room heat loss calculation takes two to three hours and is the difference between a quote you can defend and one you will lose money on. Undersizing produces a cold house and a warranty argument. Oversizing produces short cycling, poor seasonal efficiency and a customer who tells the neighbours the technology does not work. It also lifts contract value directly, because the calculation is what justifies the larger unit and the emitter upgrades to a homeowner who arrived expecting a straight swap. Contractors who charge a survey fee and credit it against the installation report both higher conversion and higher average job values.
Working capital at this contract value
Job value determines how much cash the business needs, not just how much it earns. On a SEK 170,850 project, materials and subcontract labour typically leave the account two to five weeks before the final invoice is paid, which is SEK 76,900 of exposure per job before anything goes wrong.
The remedy is structural rather than clever: a deposit near SEK 51,250 at order, a stage payment against delivery, and a final invoice on handover rather than thirty days after it. It also functions as a qualification tool. A household that cannot pay a deposit on a SEK 170,850 project is not a household that will pay the balance.
The ROT deduction applies to labour only, so the split matters
Sweden's ROT allowance lets households deduct a share of the labour cost of renovation work from their tax, applied at invoicing by the contractor and capped per person per year. Materials are excluded. That single rule shapes Swedish quoting: the labour and material split on your invoice determines directly what the customer pays, it has to be defensible, and the deduction is claimed through you rather than by them. Presenting it clearly on the quote lifts conversion. Inflating the labour share to flatter the net price is a risk you are taking with Skatteverket, not with the customer.
The lever is scope, not negotiation
Every ratio on this page improves faster from the revenue side than from the cost side. Adding emitter replacement and buffer tanks to a heat pump job adds 15 to 30 percent and is often unavoidable rather than optional, and it is sold to a household that has already chosen you. Winning one more customer at the same margin costs SEK 3,950 to SEK 10,300 in lead spend; upgrading the scope of one you have already won costs a better quote and twenty minutes.
Price the option, do not mention it. An option with a number attached is bought roughly three times as often as an option described in a sentence.
Put both versions on one page. Two priced columns beat two separate documents, because the comparison is the sale.
Give the upgrade a reason that is not money. Noise, comfort, disruption avoided later, and a guarantee that covers the whole job rather than half of it.
What is actually left after materials and labour
Strip materials and installation labour out of a heat pump contract in Sweden and 20 to 30 percent remains. On the SEK 170,850 midpoint that is SEK 34,150 to SEK 51,250, and it is the only figure on this page with any bearing on whether a marketing budget is affordable.
Two businesses with identical turnover can therefore have completely different capacity to buy work. Before comparing your acquisition spend with anyone else's, convert it into a percentage of gross margin. Ten percent is conservative, 20 percent is normal, and above 30 percent you are financing growth out of next year's profit, which is a legitimate decision but should be a decision rather than an accident.
Why the average heat pump job misleads
Averages in this trade are pulled upward by a small number of large projects. If three jobs in twenty come in near SEK 227,800, the mean stops describing the work you actually do and starts describing the work you occasionally win.
That matters commercially because acquisition budgets are set as a share of margin. Set them against an inflated mean and you overspend on every ordinary job to break even on the rare large one. The median of twenty signed contracts is the number to use, and in a band of SEK 113,900 to SEK 227,800 it usually sits below the midpoint of SEK 170,850 rather than above it.
Air source and ground source are two different businesses
Ground source is not a premium version of air source, it is a different job with a drilling subcontractor in the middle of it. Borehole work commonly runs EUR 50 to EUR 90 per metre and a domestic installation needs 100 to 200 metres, so the ground loop alone can exceed the entire cost of an air source system. Contract values of EUR 25,000 to EUR 35,000 are normal, lead times are longer, and the buyer is usually a rural homeowner with land and no gas connection. If both come from the same enquiry flow, qualify on plot size and rig access before the first visit rather than after it.
Turning this benchmark into your own figure
Start from invoices, not quotes: a median of twenty signed heat pump contracts is worth more than any published average, including this one.
Take materials and installation labour out of each contract so you are working with margin rather than turnover.
Divide the number of enquiries you received by the number of customers you signed. That ratio, not the lead price, is what most contractors get wrong.
Price a signed customer by multiplying that ratio by the quoted lead price, then express it as a share of your median margin.
Re-run all five twice a year. Job values drift, conversion drifts faster, and a benchmark from eighteen months ago is a guess.
How these figures were built
These figures are a benchmark model, not a survey. They combine an industry base range observed across Western European home-improvement campaigns with a country multiplier for local auction pressure. Treat them as a band to negotiate against, not a quote. Every figure derives from two inputs: a base band for heat pump work and a labour and materials index of 1.12 for Sweden against a Benelux baseline of 1.00. The index is not the ad auction multiplier, and treating the two as one number is the most common error in cross-border benchmarking. Figures are modelled in euro and converted at 11.30 SEK per EUR 1, so the local number is indicative rather than a spot price.
How Flock Leads prices this
For comparison against the acquisition figures above, this is what Flock Leads charges for exclusive volume in this market:
Starter - 10 leads for EUR 750, which is EUR 75 per lead
Growth - 25 leads for EUR 1,750, which is EUR 70 per lead
Scale - 45 leads for EUR 2,925, which is EUR 65 per lead
Pro - 70 leads for EUR 4,340, which is EUR 62 per lead
Max - 90 leads for EUR 5,400, which is EUR 60 per lead
No retainer, no contract term, and no lead sent to a second business. Unused volume rolls over under the Flock Lead Promise.
Want leads like this in your pipeline?
Flock runs the campaigns, screens the enquiries and hands you only the ones that match your service area, job size and capacity. You pay per lead, not per month.
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Related answers
Frequently asked questions
How much does a heat pump project cost in Sweden?
Between SEK 113,900 to SEK 227,800 for a private household in 2026, midpoint around SEK 170,850, excluding VAT and excluding competitively tendered work. Where a specific job lands depends on whether the property needs new emitters, the heat load of the building, and air source against ground source.
Does this figure include VAT?
No. Every number here is exclusive of VAT, because rates on home improvement work vary by country, by measure and sometimes by the age of the property. Quote your customer inclusive if that is the local convention, but do your margin arithmetic exclusive, otherwise the tax looks like profit.
Why is the band so wide?
Because whether the property needs new emitters, the heat load of the building, and air source against ground source genuinely swings the price that much. A narrow average would be more comforting and less true. The useful move is to establish where your own typical job sits inside the band, then price your marketing against that point rather than against the midpoint.
What gross margin should I expect on heat pump work?
20 to 30 percent of contract value is the working band, which is SEK 34,150 to SEK 51,250 on the SEK 170,850 midpoint job. Below 20 percent you are either buying materials badly or quoting labour at a rate that does not cover a wet week.
Does a higher job value make lead buying easier?
Usually, yes, because the lead price is close to fixed while the margin scales with the contract. At the SEK 170,850 midpoint, acquisition is 7.7 to 30.1 percent of gross margin. Raise the average job by a fifth and that percentage falls by roughly the same proportion without a single change to what you pay per lead.
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