THE SHORT ANSWER
Off-peak leads typically cost 20 to 40 percent less than peak leads and convert more slowly, because the intent is real but the deadline is not. Buying volume in the trough at the lower price and nurturing it into the peak is the cheapest growth available in a seasonal trade, and it is rare precisely because it requires holding a lead for weeks rather than closing it this fortnight.
Why prices move
Auction prices follow advertiser demand, not homeowner demand. When every installer in a trade raises budgets in the same six weeks, click prices rise for everyone and cost per lead rises with them. In the trough, the same homeowner is cheaper to reach because fewer competitors are bidding, not because they are worth less.
Typical peaks and troughs by trade
Solar: peaks in spring and early summer, troughs November to January
Heat pumps and insulation: peak September to January, trough in high summer
Roofing: peaks after the first autumn storms, troughs in February
Air conditioning: peaks with the first heatwave, troughs in midwinter
Kitchens and bathrooms: peak in January and September, trough in July
Gardens and landscaping: peak March to June, trough November to January
These figures are a benchmark model, not a survey. They combine an industry base range observed across Western European home-improvement campaigns with a country multiplier for local auction pressure. Treat them as a band to negotiate against, not a quote.
The counter-cyclical play, concretely
Buy 20 to 30 percent above your normal volume during the trough, at the trough price.
Quote normally, and expect a lower immediate close rate. That is the trade, not a failure.
Put every unclosed quote on a dated follow-up eight to twelve weeks out, timed to land as the season turns.
Work that list in the first two weeks of the peak, before your competitors' new leads arrive.
The mechanism is straightforward, and it fails only where nobody owns the dated follow-up list.
What to avoid in the peak
Raising volume sharply in the peak means paying the highest price of the year for leads your team is least able to answer quickly, because installation capacity is already stretched. Peak is the right time to raise prices and tighten qualification, not the right time to buy more.
Related answers
Frequently asked questions
Are off-peak leads lower quality?
No, they are less urgent. Same intent, longer decision, which is why the follow-up discipline matters more than the lead price.
Should I pause buying in the trough?
Only if you cannot follow up. Pausing hands the cheapest volume of the year to whoever does not pause.
How much cheaper is off-peak, really?
Twenty to forty percent below peak in most home-improvement trades, varying with how sharply the trade's advertisers pull back.
Does Flock volume roll over across seasons?
Yes. Unused leads roll over under the Flock Lead Promise, so trough buying does not expire against you.
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